Project summary

Project description

The Arctic tundra is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, yet the fine-scale microclimatic conditions that govern soil temperature, moisture, and ecosystem respiration remain largely unresolved. MicroSCOPE develops a Gaussian-process emulator that learns mechanistic microclimate behaviour to generate fast, probabilistic, high-resolution predictions of soil temperature and moisture across the European Arctic tundra. The project will reconstruct four decades (1984–2024) of hourly microclimate conditions at 30 m resolution and use these data to assess how microclimate warming has diverged from macroclimate warming and to improve estimates of ecosystem respiration.